Metaculus
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform that aggregates predictions on global topics from a community of forecasters, offering machine learning-optimized forecasts and various forecasting resources.
About Metaculus
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community. The name 'Metaculus' is derived from the Metaculus genus in the Eriophyidae family, a genus of herbivorous mites. The platform poses questions about the occurrence of various future events to its community of participating forecasters, aggregating these into a Community Prediction and an advanced Metaculus Prediction.
Services
Metaculus offers a variety of services including machine learning-optimized aggregate forecasts on globally important topics. The platform features private questions not visible to the broader community, allowing for specialized forecasting. Additionally, Metaculus has an API for accessing its data and services, and provides a wealth of forecasting resources such as analysis tools, tutorials, textbooks, and research on forecasting.
Partnerships and Collaborations
Metaculus has a history of partnering with nonprofit organizations, university researchers, and companies to enhance its forecasting capabilities. The platform's tournaments, which are centered around specific topics or themes, often involve collaborations with nonprofits, government agencies, or other organizations.
Features
Metaculus has a number of notable features, including a domain system where each domain has a subset of questions and users assigned to it. The platform offers NewsMatch, which displays a selection of articles relevant to the current Metaculus question, and Community Insights, summarizing user comments on a given question using GPT-4. Metaculus also employs Pro Forecasters who have demonstrated exceptional forecasting ability and a history of clearly describing their rationales.
Tournaments and Rewards
Metaculus organizes tournaments that focus on specific topics or themes and frequently involve collaborations with different organizations. The most accurate forecasters in these tournaments are awarded cash prizes and medals. The platform also features a leaderboard displaying current scores and rankings for forecasters.